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Whether you pose this question to a wide-eyed entrepreneur or a seasoned veteran in our space, it's pretty obvious what the answer will be. In fact, ever since the term "digital signage" gained traction about a decade ago, the hardware, software, services and advertising segments of the market have seen double-digit gains (or more!) every single year. And new reports from Frost & Sullivan, PQ Media and a number of others tell us that that while the rate of increase may start to decline a bit, we should continue to see healthy growth for some time to come. I was thinking about this while studying the web analytics for wirespring.com and this blog's subscription sources -- via RSS, email and plain old web page views. You see, starting in 2005, the blog saw geometric growth in its number of subscribers every year until 2008. Then, suddenly, the growth rate became linear. In searching for an explanation, I noticed something interesting: according to the Google Trends tool, the growth in the number of queries for key terms in our industry has slowed down dramatically in the last year or so, mimicking what I'm seeing on our blog. While I don't think this is a perfect analogue to what's actually going on in the market, it could indicate that we're reaching a critical growth point where hype and volume matter less. Well... maybe....
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At last week's NRF show, Intel and Microsoft introduced a new prototype design that they're calling an "open-standards platform for digital signage." As summarized in this nice writeup from eWeek, the platform consists of Intel-based hardware, Microsoft-based software, and a bevy of peripherals like holographic film, large touch screens, and cameras for detecting a viewer's age, gender and ethnicity. The idea that titans like Intel and Microsoft would bother dabbling in an industry as small as ours perplexes me. That they'd refer to it as "open-standards" leaves me wondering if they speak English as a first language. So, I've spent some time thinking about Microsoft and Intel, why they've decided to do what they did, and what it could mean for our industry....
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